MSSM 2011 (Chess Team) Trivia Facts

I have compiled some statistical data based solely on National Rating for general consumption. As you may not aware that the initial seeding of chess players for team category in this edition of MSSM are not line up according to their respective National Rating (i.e. did not use National Rating , instead use last year MSSM result).

So I would like to retabulate the final ranking on the scenario What if all players are seeded according to the National Rating and how they fare at the end of the competition.

The analysis for Podium finishing (based on National Rating) as below:
Cat. >> Champion, Second, Third
U12B >> top rank, 2nd highest, 3rd highest
U15B >> top rank, 2nd highest, 7th highest
U18B >> top rank, 2nd highest, 3rd highest
U12G >> top rank, 3rd highest, 2nd highest
U15G >> top rank, 3rd highest, 2nd highest
U18G >> top rank, 3rd highest, 2nd highest


Findings:
1. You hv 100% chance [sure] to finish as Champion if your team have the highest National Rating accumulated from 4 players in your Team category. WOW!!!

2. You hv 0% chance to finish as Champion if your team ARE NOT with highest National Rating accumulated from 4 players in your Team category. JUST TOO BAD???

3. You hv 100% chance [sure] to finish on podium if your team have highest National Rating accumulated from 4 players in your Team category. WOW!!!

4. You hv 100% chance [sure] to finish on podium if your team are among the 2 teams with highest National Rating accumulated from 4 players in your Team category. WOW!!!

5. You hv 94% chance to finish on podium if your team are among the 3 teams with highest National Rating accumulated from 4 players in your Team category. GREAT!!

6. You hv 6% chance to finish on podium if your team ARE NOT among the 3 teams with highest National Rating accumulated from 4 players in your Team category. WORK HARDER NEXT TIME?


Conclusion:

1. Isn't this number look very sad for teams outside the "Big 3" chess powerhouse in Malaysia?

2. It is so bleak and very discouraging for those states to compete in the team event.

3. Looks like our National Rating is a superb benchmark indeed for Team event.