MSSM 2011 (Chess Individual) Trivia Facts

I have compiled some statistical data based solely on National Rating for general consumption. As you may not aware that the initial seeding of chess players for this edition of MSSM are not line up according to their respective National Rating (i.e. not 100%), so I would like to retabulate the final ranking on the scenario What if all players are seeded according to the National Rating and how they fare at the end of the competition.

The analysis for Podium finishing (based on National Rating) as below:
Cat. >> Champion, Second, Third
U12B >> 4th highest, top rank, 2nd highest
U15B >> top rank, 2nd highest, 6th highest
U18B >> 2nd highest, 3rd highest, top rank
U12G >> top rank, 3rd highest, 4th highest
U15G >> top rank, 2nd highest, 13th highest
U18G >> top rank, 2nd highest, 3rd highest

Findings:
1. You hv 67% chance to finish as Champion if you have the highest National Rating in your Individual category. LOOKS GOOD!

2. You hv 83% chance to finish as Champion if you are among 3 players with highest National Rating in your Individual category.

3. You hv 17% chance to finish as Champion if you ARE NOT among 3 players with highest National Rating in your Individual category.

4. You hv 0% chance to finish as Champion if you ARE NOT among 4 players with highest National Rating in your Individual category. JUST TOO BAD???

5. You hv 100% chance [sure] to finish on podium if you have the highest National Rating in your Individual category. WOW!!!

6. You hv 78% chance to finish on podium if you are among 3 players with highest National Rating in your Individual category.

7. You hv 22% chance to finish on podium if you ARE NOT among 3 players with highest National Rating in your Individual category.

8. You hv 11% chance to finish on podium if you ARE NOT among 4 players with highest National Rating in your Individual category. WORK HARDER NEXT TIME?


Conclusion:

1. Isn't this number look bleak and very discouraging for those who are not among the highest 4 players on National Rating?

2. Our National Rating is a good benchmark to be used (100%) in MSSM Individual event.